Are house prices going up or down in 2024?
After a volatile couple of years, what is in store for the 2024 UK housing market? While no one has a crystal ball, there are forecasts that offer thoughtful clues around whether prices will keep falling, stabilise or even rebound. This blog summarises expert projections on potential price shifts, buyer demand, selling conditions and mortgage rates – to inform strategies amidst uncertain times.
Whether you’re mulling over selling, jumping back into purchases or staying put, insight from leading housing economists helps you plan ahead for 2024. And as your trusted Chester agents, we’ll translate national figures into local impacts.
Will Asking Prices Fall in 2024?
As the market cools from its blistering 2021-early 2022 pace, the question on most housing analysts’ minds is whether home prices have already peaked – or if further drops are still in store for 2024. Put simply – the expert consensus forecasts a 1-5% national average asking price fall continuing into 2024.
In assessing recent data, average new seller asking prices across Britain have already declined roughly 1.1% from 2022 as compared to 2021 levels. National property portal Rightmove now predicts this downward price momentum will not only continue but potentially accelerate into next year.
That said, projections indicate that asking price declines will vary significantly depending on location. More expensive southern regions like London and the Southwest are expected to see sharper home value contractions around 3-5%, as already stretched budget ceilings intensify affordability constraints.
Meanwhile, in more reasonably priced northern regions with incomes better sustaining current prices, trajectories look flatter. Areas like the North West, Chester & Cheshire and Midlands could see marginal 1-2% slipping or even stability if local economies hold up.
Why Pricing Remains Key For 2024 Sellers
With most market indicators pointing towards cooling homebuyer demand in 2024, competitive and realistic pricing will likely make or break seller success next year. Consider key trends that reinforce this imperative:
- Sales volumes still lagging
Agreed sales are still running 10% below 2019 levels, as higher prices and rates curb transactions. Assume buyers will remain disciplined.
- Longer marketing times
The average time for a UK seller to find a buyer has jumped from 45 days in early 2022 to 66 days currently – limiting offers.
- More price reductions
39% of listings saw an asking price drop in 2022 to clinch deals, up from just 29% in 2021. Budget accurately.
- Rival Discounts
Neighbouring listings forced to cut prices will anchor buyer perceptions. Lead with fair values.
Given these emerging realities, working closely with your agent to set alluring yet realistic pricing that attracts buyers quickly without needlessly overdiscounting will be essential. The data shows correctly priced homes sell faster – claim your advantage in 2024 through upfront pricing integrity.
Mortgage Rates Cooling After 2022 Spikes
The mortgage rate rollercoaster of 2022/3 appears to be steadying – which is good news for assessing potential 2024 purchases. After peaking over 6% mid-year when the Bank of England rapidly hiked its base lending rate, fixed mortgage deals have cooled back down to around 5% as of late 2022.
While still expensive for some buyers after years at 2-3%, this levelling out suggests stability finally returning to home financing costs. The renewed consistency helps steady prospective buyers derailed by 2023’s unpredictability and surging payments. With less month-to-month whiplash forecast next year, budgeting around 5% should empower more sound plans.
Looking Ahead with Humphreys
As we’ve explored, 2024 projections point towards a housing market that continues normalising after years of seismic pandemic shifts and uncertainty. While risks certainly endure around inflation, recession impacts and global instability introducing volatility, expert analysis foresees a year of relative stabilisation rather than acute contraction.
Ready to discuss plans tailored to unpredictable conditions? Whether selling, buying or staying put in 2024 and beyond, please get in touch with us to determine strategy optimising for your unique situation!
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